South Africa’s political and economic landscape shifted significantly following the 2024 national elections, with the ruling African National Congress (ANC) losing substantial support. This led to the formation of a government of national unity (GNU), marking a pivotal moment in the country’s political history.
The unity government aims to bring political parties together to deliver a cohesive administration. President Cyril Ramaphosa described it as an effort “to work together as political parties for the good of the country, and to deliver a government that will be united in action and purpose.” However, questions remain about its durability, given the diverse priorities of its constituent parties.
Political analyst Theo Neethling highlighted eight key factors that will influence South Africa’s short- and medium-term trajectory:
1. Depth of Democracy
The unity government was formed to stabilise governance, but its durability is uncertain. Conflicting priorities among coalition members, including ideological differences on National Health Insurance and foreign policy, may strain the coalition. Restoring legitimacy and voter confidence is crucial, as voter turnout has declined from 89% in 1999 to 58% in 2024.
2. Incumbency and Succession
Divisions within the ANC remain, raising questions about Ramaphosa’s leadership and the party’s future role in the unity government. The ANC’s national elective conference in 2027 is expected to set the party’s direction and determine its leadership succession.
3. Trust in Government
Public confidence in government institutions has eroded, especially at the municipal level. Protests over poor service delivery, including water and sanitation, and declining trust in parliament underscore the challenge the unity government faces in restoring faith among the electorate.
4. Disparities and Unemployment
Wealth disparities and unemployment exceeding 30%, with youth unemployment even higher, continue to fuel societal tensions. The 2021 unrest in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, which resulted in over 300 deaths, looting, and destruction, highlighted the risks associated with economic inequality and poverty.
5. Safety and Security
High crime rates, including organised crime and violence, remain pressing issues. Low public trust in police has led to a significant private security sector, with over 2.7 million registered officers. Restoring public confidence in policing is essential for the unity government.
6. Economic Sentiment
South Africa attracted nearly R100 billion in foreign direct investment in 2023. Advantages for investors include strong financial and communication sectors, robust capital markets, quality tertiary institutions, and abundant natural resources. However, crime remains a deterrent for tourism and business.
7. Government Competence
Public administration, particularly at the local level, suffers from poor governance, corruption, and service delivery failures. State-owned enterprises, including Eskom and Transnet, face systemic inefficiencies. The unity government must foster a professional public service capable of delivering tangible improvements.
8. Regional Landscape and Foreign Policy
Illegal migration, particularly from Zimbabwe, and regional instability, including the jihadist conflict in Mozambique, pose security challenges. South Africa recently closed a primary border crossing with Mozambique amid election-related unrest. The unity government must adopt strong foreign policy measures and maintain regional stability.
The unity government faces complex challenges in ensuring political stability, economic growth, and public trust, with its success heavily reliant on effective leadership from President Ramaphosa.
