South Africa’s 2022 census, released on October 10, has sparked debate and concern among urban scholars and planning experts over what appears to be a significant slowdown in Johannesburg’s population growth. The data, which plays a critical role in national planning and policymaking, revealed several unexpected trends in the country’s urban development patterns.
According to the census, Gauteng — South Africa’s economic hub — recorded an annual population growth rate of 2.0%, only slightly above the national average, and behind the Western Cape (2.4%) and Mpumalanga (2.3%). More surprising, however, is Johannesburg’s growth rate of 0.8%, suggesting the city is no longer among South Africa’s fastest-growing urban areas.
This figure contrasts sharply with Johannesburg’s reputation as a booming metropolis struggling to meet the demand for housing, infrastructure, and services. Experts caution that while this could signal an economic slowdown, it may also point to possible data inaccuracies.
“There is a possibility that this could reflect a deep crisis in South Africa’s premier city — the outcome of a decade or so of weak economic growth and increased social insecurity,” the authors noted.
Census figures show that Cape Town, with 4,772,846 residents, is now close to overtaking Johannesburg’s 4,803,262, growing at roughly double Johannesburg’s rate.
Between 2011 and 2022, Johannesburg’s white population declined by about 211,000, the Indian population by 49,000, and the coloured population by 18,000. While the black African population increased by 665,000, the growth rate of 1.7% per year aligns with the national average — indicating even this group’s expansion has slowed.
Despite Johannesburg offering more jobs than Cape Town, its weak economic performance in recent years may have contributed to declining migration and settlement rates. Researchers also highlighted growing “semigration,” where middle-class South Africans move to other provinces rather than emigrate abroad.
Some smaller towns and rural areas, such as Bushbuckridge in Mpumalanga, are now experiencing annual growth rates of over 3%, suggesting new demographic shifts away from traditional urban centers.
The accuracy of the census data has also come under scrutiny. The report revealed an undercount rate of 31%, nearly double that of the previous census. This undercount — driven by factors such as limited access to gated communities, uncounted foreign nationals, and technical difficulties with online submissions — raises doubts about the reliability of some findings.
While adjustments are expected through post-enumeration sampling, experts say the figures could still be revised, as has happened in past censuses.
As analysis continues, researchers note that South Africa may be witnessing the early stages of a shift in settlement patterns, possibly linked to weak economic growth, rising social insecurity, and changing migration dynamics.
The authors — Prof. Philip Harrison, Prof. Alison Todes, Dr. Darlington Mushongera, and Dr. Graeme Gotz from Wits University — concluded that Johannesburg’s slower growth may either reflect data challenges or a deeper structural issue affecting South Africa’s economic heartland.
They cautioned that while slower growth could ease urban pressures, it might also signal “a deep crisis in South Africa’s premier city.”
