Bafana Bafana’s hopes of reaching the World Cup playoffs appear slim, as the qualification permutations make their path to Morocco’s mini-tournament highly unlikely.
South Africa currently sit eighth in the second-placed teams’ table, four points behind the fourth-placed side. Even with a victory over Rwanda at Mbombela Stadium on Tuesday evening, Bafana cannot finish among the top four runners-up who will advance to the playoff tournament next month.
The situation worsened after Fifa docked South Africa three points for fielding ineligible player Teboho Mokoena during a 2-0 win over Lesotho in March. That sanction, combined with Friday’s 0-0 draw against Zimbabwe in Durban, has left Hugo Broos’ men in a difficult position.
Bafana, on 15 points with a +3 goal difference, must now beat Rwanda and hope Benin — who lead Group C with 17 points and a +5 goal difference — lose away to Nigeria in Uyo.
If Benin draw, South Africa would draw level with them on 18 points and need a win by at least three clear goals to surpass them on goal difference. Should both teams end level, South Africa would advance due to their superior head-to-head record, having beaten Benin home and away.
However, even in that case, a second-place finish will not be enough to reach the playoffs. Only the four best second-placed teams across all groups qualify for the mini tournament, where they’ll compete for a spot in an intercontinental playoff.
Eritrea’s withdrawal from Group E earlier in the campaign affected the standings, with CAF ruling that matches against sixth-placed teams would not count toward the second-placed ranking.
Currently, Gabon lead that table with 16 points from seven matches, followed by Cameroon (15), Burkina Faso (15), and Niger (15). Behind them are DR Congo (13), Madagascar (13), Uganda (12), and Bafana Bafana (11 points, excluding games against Zimbabwe, who are bottom of Group C).
South Africa’s only remaining chance lies in beating Rwanda and hoping for a Nigeria victory or draw against Benin.
Benin, who beat Rwanda 1–0 away in Kigali on Friday to go top of the group, face a tough challenge in Uyo. The Super Eagles, despite a poor start that included draws against Lesotho, Zimbabwe, and Bafana, as well as a defeat to Benin, have since gone five games unbeaten under new coaching management.
Nigeria, now on 14 points, could still finish top if they beat Benin by two or more goals. Their squad has also been boosted by the return of star striker Victor Osimhen, who featured in their 2–1 win against Lesotho in Polokwane on Friday.
Bafana previously beat Benin 2–1 at home and 2–0 away, but the docked points and dropped results have left them reliant on Nigeria’s performance to keep their qualification hopes alive.
